The Trump administration’s new fuel economy standards will roll back efficiency gains, setting a 2031 target of 34.9 miles per gallon (MPG)—lower than the 35 MPG Congress required for 2020 vehicles. With gas prices averaging $4.49 per gallon and up 40% since the Iran war began, the Department of Transportation’s decision contradicts both consumer interests and prior legal mandates.
By contrast, the rules set by the Biden Administration would have achieved fuel economy of 50.4 MPG by 2031. The DOT’s own analysis admits manufacturers will meet the weaker targets with minimal effort, and for Model Year 2030, efficiency standards for light trucks will drop by 14%, while passenger cars see a 0.3% decline. The agency claims these are the “maximum feasible” under law, despite the regression.
The rule also eliminates credit trading programs, which allowed electric vehicle makers like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid to offset compliance costs. Tesla alone has earned over $10 billion from such programs, nearly a third of its profits. Without these credits, the financial incentive for automakers to exceed standards weakens further. Even if they fail to comply, Congress has stripped penalties from the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, removing any consequence for noncompliance.
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Environmental impacts are downplayed in the rule. The DOT acknowledges the switch from Biden’s standards will increase greenhouse gas emissions but refuses to quantify the damage. The cost-benefit analysis also assumes drivers will drive more if fuel efficiency improves, a claim contradicted by economic studies. Fine particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide emissions will rise under the new rules, though the analysis adjusts benefits to justify the weaker standards.
The final rule mirrors the December proposal, which the writer called “audaciously, aggressively awful.” Legal challenges are expected, focusing on the DOT’s claim that 2031 standards lower than 2020 requirements meet statutory limits.
